Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 218.728201 263.869917 319.052340 392.512631 489.347501 614.984715 7.943474e+02
2025-08-17 160.884692 211.156532 280.048817 384.624123 545.579815 795.567452 1.239658e+03
2025-08-24 128.493947 178.271823 251.955965 374.712389 586.939303 967.757526 1.787159e+03
2025-08-31 107.299847 155.062658 229.960055 364.066115 618.778447 1135.892997 2.464262e+03
2025-09-07 99.656572 150.189434 234.355079 397.258475 741.199657 1549.869969 4.162815e+03
2025-09-14 89.331955 138.783006 224.876463 401.618243 807.141741 1884.197365 6.172037e+03
2025-09-21 82.220301 131.414668 220.726204 414.848948 899.011699 2361.485930 9.776595e+03
2025-09-28 74.539039 121.761972 210.325260 411.730733 949.500634 2763.412591 1.432188e+04
2025-10-05 72.092393 121.164863 217.230058 449.457794 1131.430384 3838.301304 2.910048e+04
2025-10-12 69.123418 119.078678 220.623750 479.963473 1312.314195 5198.082521 6.205468e+04
2025-10-19 65.786688 115.763700 220.733090 502.232009 1482.637961 6849.785632 1.410526e+05
2025-10-26 62.275516 111.606739 218.206926 516.706489 1636.930430 8797.972311 3.533651e+05
2025-11-02 58.235482 106.056737 212.029374 520.561291 1761.526251 11006.555980 1.052822e+06
2025-11-09 53.829362 99.238245 201.825045 509.681810 1818.254244 12910.340695 3.378022e+06
2025-11-16 49.782511 92.745081 191.433624 495.523212 1853.320330 14842.579737 1.553827e+07
2025-11-23 46.158005 86.788064 181.498751 480.288853 1875.466126 16851.783040 1.802868e+08
2025-11-30 45.708568 87.794182 189.314011 527.983788 2292.215823 28008.402891 NaN
2025-12-07 43.525326 84.624216 185.737047 534.282170 2474.783139 37215.887338 NaN
2025-12-14 42.002027 82.810922 185.522338 553.441485 2773.062039 54944.684442 NaN
2025-12-21 39.787470 79.148786 179.679154 548.919773 2899.635112 70361.700649 NaN
2025-12-28 39.600131 80.298273 187.581510 603.881834 3598.828977 147940.712970 NaN
2026-01-04 39.003412 80.382079 192.450394 648.717326 4320.257420 320601.950251 NaN
2026-01-11 38.071780 79.530059 194.394200 681.660551 5014.903917 715708.108932 NaN